Austria’s far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) is poised to secure its first national parliamentary election victory, capitalizing on voter anxieties surrounding immigration, inflation, and the ongoing war in Ukraine. Although this projected win marks a significant milestone for the party, its path to governing remains uncertain, as potential coalition partners have ruled out working with the FPÖ’s leader, Herbert Kickl.

The Rise of the Far-Right

The FPÖ’s success stems from its ability to tap into public dissatisfaction with the government’s handling of various crises. High inflation, fueled by the war in Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic, has eroded public confidence. Concerns over migration and its impact on national identity have also contributed to the FPÖ’s surge in popularity.

Utilizing Public Frustration

The FPÖ’s election campaign, titled “Fortress Austria,” resonates with these anxieties. It calls for a “remigration of uninvited foreigners,” aiming to achieve a more “homogeneous” nation through strict border control and suspending asylum rights. This rhetoric plays into existing fears about cultural change and economic strain attributed to immigration.

An Anti-Establishment Agenda

The party further distinguishes itself by advocating for a more isolationist approach on the global stage. The FPÖ calls for an end to sanctions against Russia, opposes Western military aid to Ukraine, and seeks to withdraw Austria from the European Sky Shield Initiative. Kickl’s rhetoric often criticizes “elites” in Brussels, echoing calls for greater national sovereignty and pushing for the decentralization of EU powers.

The Roadblocks to Power

Despite the projected victory, the FPÖ faces significant hurdles to form a government. Other parties, particularly the ruling Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) and the center-left Social Democrats (SPÖ), have firmly rejected collaborating with Kickl, citing concerns about his far-right ideology and potential threats to democratic norms.

Coalition Challenges

The ÖVP, currently in power, has unequivocally ruled out joining a government led by Kickl. Nehammer, the ÖVP leader, considers the FPÖ’s leader a “security risk” for Austria, highlighting the deep political chasm that divides the two parties.

A Divided Parliament

The prospect of a broad coalition involving the ÖVP and the SPÖ, possibly with the liberal Neos, appears more plausible. This scenario would allow the ÖVP to maintain some influence, but the lack of a cohesive ideology between the parties might lead to governance challenges and potentially increase instability.

The Impact on Austria and Beyond

The FPÖ’s projected success signifies a broader trend in Europe, where populist and far-right movements have gained momentum due to political and economic turmoil. The potential rise of a far-right government in Austria would be closely watched by other European countries, as it could signal a growing influence of these movements in the region.

Concerns for Democracy and Stability

Critics fear that the FPÖ’s agenda could erode democratic principles and threaten Austria’s stability. The party’s focus on nationalist rhetoric and policies targeting minorities raises concerns about potential social divisions and potential for discriminatory measures.

Potential for Regional Spread

Austria’s election outcome could reverberate throughout Europe. Similar populist movements in other countries might feel emboldened by the FPÖ’s potential victory, increasing the likelihood of similar successes elsewhere.

Take Away Points

• Austria’s upcoming election signifies a potential shift towards the far-right, driven by anxieties over immigration, economic concerns, and the Ukraine conflict.
• The FPÖ’s victory is projected, but forming a government remains difficult due to other parties’ unwillingness to collaborate with their leader, Herbert Kickl.
• This situation highlights the growing influence of populist and far-right movements across Europe, raising concerns about the future of democratic institutions and social stability in the region.
• Austria’s election is a crucial indicator of the broader political landscape in Europe, as it reflects a global trend of increasing disillusionment with established political parties and traditional governance structures.