As the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) marks its seventy-fifth birthday, the alliance is beginning to explore a larger role for itself in the Indo-Pacific. However, members are divided on whether or to what extent it should do so. With war raging in Europe, some believe NATO should focus solely on supporting Ukraine and deterring Russia. Others see a need for NATO to bolster deterrence in the Indo-Pacific, particularly against Chinese adventurism. The path the alliance chooses could have significant geopolitical consequences.

A Historic Milestone: NATO at 75

NATO, founded in 1949, has primarily focused on European and North Atlantic security. Celebrating its seventy-fifth anniversary, the alliance is reflecting on its achievements and future challenges. The evolving geopolitical landscape calls for a reassessment of NATO’s strategic priorities.

The Current Debate: NATO’s Focus

Supporting Ukraine and Deterring Russia

For many NATO members, the immediate concern is the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Russia’s aggression poses a direct threat to NATO members, necessitating a robust response. The alliance’s support for Ukraine includes military aid, intelligence sharing, and economic sanctions against Russia. This focus on Europe is seen as critical to maintaining NATO’s core mission of collective defense.

A Role in the Indo-Pacific?

Conversely, some argue that NATO must extend its reach to the Indo-Pacific region. China’s growing influence and assertiveness present a significant challenge to the rules-based international order. Proponents of this view believe that NATO should work to prevent Chinese adventurism and ensure stability in the region. This would involve strengthening partnerships with countries like Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand.

The China Challenge

Historical Context

China used to be largely absent from NATO’s list of major geopolitical concerns. However, in recent years, the alliance has signaled its growing worry about China’s strategic direction and assertiveness.

NATO’s Growing Concern

In 2019, NATO mentioned China in an official statement for the first time. The London Declaration noted that “China’s growing influence and international policies present both opportunities and challenges” for the alliance. Since then, references to China have become sharper, with the 2021 Brussels Summit Communiqué stating that China’s “ambitions and assertive behavior present systemic challenges to the rules-based international order.”

China-Russia Partnership

China’s support for Russia following its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 further increased concerns within NATO. The deepening strategic partnership between China and Russia is seen as an attempt to undercut the rules-based international order. NATO’s new Strategic Concept, adopted at the Madrid Summit, explicitly called out China’s “ambitions and coercive policies” as a challenge to the alliance’s interests, security, and values.

NATO’s Strategic Evolution

Engagement with the Asia-Pacific Four

In addition to addressing immediate threats, NATO has been building partnerships in the Indo-Pacific. Leaders from Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea (the Asia-Pacific Four or AP4) have been invited to recent NATO summits. This engagement is part of a broader strategy to strengthen ties with key regional players and enhance collective security.

The Vilnius Summit and Beyond

The Vilnius Summit Communiqué of 2023 further detailed NATO’s major concerns with China. These include cyber and disinformation operations, attempts to control important industrial sectors and supply chains, and growing alignment with Russia. NATO also announced a new partnership program with Japan, underscoring its commitment to addressing global security challenges.

Diverging Views Within NATO

European Focus

Some NATO members, particularly those in Europe, argue that the alliance’s primary focus should remain on the continent. They believe that expanding NATO’s role in the Indo-Pacific could dilute its efforts to counter Russian aggression and support Ukraine.

Global Security Perspective

Others advocate for a broader approach, viewing security as an interconnected global issue. They argue that NATO must adapt to the changing geopolitical landscape and address threats beyond its traditional area of operation. This includes deterring China’s assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific, which could have far-reaching implications for global security.

Strategic Partnerships in the Indo-Pacific

Japan

Japan has been a key partner in NATO’s efforts to engage with the Indo-Pacific. The new partnership program announced at the Vilnius Summit aims to enhance cooperation in areas such as cyber defense, maritime security, and counter-terrorism.

South Korea

South Korea’s strategic location and capabilities make it a valuable partner for NATO. Strengthening ties with South Korea can enhance the alliance’s ability to respond to regional threats and promote stability in the Indo-Pacific.

Australia and New Zealand

Australia and New Zealand have also played important roles in NATO’s Indo-Pacific strategy. Their participation in NATO summits and joint military exercises demonstrates a shared commitment to maintaining a rules-based international order.

Challenges and Opportunities

Operational Challenges

Expanding NATO’s role in the Indo-Pacific presents operational challenges. The alliance must balance its resources and capabilities to address multiple threats simultaneously. Coordinating efforts with regional partners is essential for effective response and deterrence.

Political Divisions

The debate over NATO’s role in the Indo-Pacific reflects broader political divisions within the alliance. Reaching a consensus on strategic priorities is crucial for maintaining unity and effectiveness.

Opportunities for Collaboration

Despite challenges, there are significant opportunities for collaboration. Engaging with Indo-Pacific partners can enhance NATO’s strategic reach and contribute to global stability. Joint initiatives in areas such as cyber defense, maritime security, and counter-terrorism can strengthen collective security.

Looking Ahead: The Future of NATO

Adapting to a Changing World

NATO’s seventy-fifth anniversary is a time for reflection and forward-thinking. The alliance must adapt to the evolving geopolitical landscape and address emerging threats. This includes balancing its focus between Europe and the Indo-Pacific.

Building Consensus

Building consensus among NATO members is essential for a coherent strategy. Open dialogue and collaboration can help bridge divisions and ensure a unified approach to global security challenges.

Strengthening Partnerships

Strengthening partnerships with Indo-Pacific countries is key to NATO’s strategic evolution. These partnerships can enhance the alliance’s ability to address threats and promote stability in the region.

Innovative Approaches

Innovation is critical for NATO’s future success. Embracing new technologies and strategies can enhance the alliance’s capabilities and ensure its relevance in a rapidly changing world.

As NATO marks its seventy-fifth birthday, the alliance stands at a crossroads. The debate over its role in the Indo-Pacific reflects broader questions about its future direction. While some members prioritize supporting Ukraine and deterring Russia, others see a need for NATO to address global security challenges, including those posed by China. The path NATO chooses in the coming years will have significant geopolitical consequences. By building consensus, strengthening partnerships, and embracing innovation, NATO can adapt to the changing world and continue to ensure collective security.