Indian benchmark indices started last week flat and remained lackluster within a narrow trading range throughout the week. The Nifty closed at 23,466 on June 14, gaining 175 points on a weekly basis. Markets stayed in a consolidation phase and ended slightly higher, taking a pause after the volatile post-election week. Sectoral buying and traction in select themes kept traders engaged. Notably, broader indices outperformed significantly, with gains ranging from 3.82% to 4.81%, positively surprising participants.
Nifty Outlook and Strategy
Nifty Weekly Performance
The Nifty index showed a flat start last week and hovered within a narrow trading range. It closed at 23,466 on June 14, reflecting a weekly gain of 175 points. Despite the consolidation phase, the market managed to end slightly higher, taking a breather after the volatility experienced post-election.
Technical Analysis by Rajesh Palviya
Doji Candlestick Pattern
On the weekly chart, the Nifty has formed a “Doji” candlestick pattern, indicating indecisiveness among market participants. This pattern is a sign of market uncertainty, often seen when bulls and bears are equally matched.
Key Resistance and Support Levels
- Key Resistance: 23,550-23,700
- Key Support: 23,300-23,150
Strategy by Rajesh Palviya
If the Nifty crosses and sustains above the 23,600 level, it will likely see buying pressure, pushing the index towards 23,800-23,900 levels. Conversely, if the index falls below 23,300, it may experience selling pressure, taking it down to 23,200-23,000. For the week, Nifty is expected to trade in the range of 23,900-23,000 with a mixed bias. The daily and weekly RSI indicators are moving upwards and quoting above their reference lines, indicating a positive bias.
Strategy: Buy Nifty near 23,300 with a stop loss at 23,220, targeting 23,550-23,700.
Insights from Rajesh Bhosale
Weekly Trading Activity
The weekly trading activity for the key indices was dull, as evident on the daily chart, which shows a series of small-body candles indicating bullish fatigue and a time-wise correction phase.
Key Levels to Watch
For the coming week, the key range extends to 23,200 – 23,600. Beyond this zone, momentum is expected to pick up again, as the hourly Bollinger Band has contracted significantly. Typically, a period of low volatility is followed by high volatility.
Strategy: Buy on dips around 23,350 and book profits around 23,600. Monitor these levels and plan trades accordingly.
Options Analysis
The highest concentration of open interest on the Call side is at the deep OTM strike of 24,000. Prior to that, significant accumulation is evident at the slightly OTM 23,500 call strike, which has served as a strong barrier all week. Conversely, the 23,400 put strike has the highest concentration of open interest, with notable buildup seen at the 23,300 put, indicating key support.
Key Support: 23,350 – 23,230 – 23,100 Key Resistance: 23,600 – 23,730 – 23,800
Bank Nifty Outlook and Strategy
Bank Nifty Weekly Performance
Bank Nifty started the week on a flat note and remained consolidated within a narrow range, closing positively. Bank Nifty closed at 50,002 on June 14th with a gain of 199 points on a weekly basis. On the weekly chart, the index has formed a bullish candle and remained restricted within the previous week’s high-low range, indicating a lack of strength on either side.
Technical Analysis by Rajesh Palviya
Key Resistance and Support Levels
- Key Resistance: 50,200-50,500
- Key Support: 49,800-49,600
Strategy by Rajesh Palviya
If Bank Nifty crosses and sustains above the 50,250 level, it will likely see buying pressure, pushing the index towards 50,500-50,700 levels. Conversely, if the index falls below 49,800, it may experience selling pressure, taking it down to 49,600-49,300. For the week, Bank Nifty is expected to trade in the range of 50,700-49,300 with a mixed bias. The daily and weekly RSI indicators are moving upwards and quoting above their respective reference lines, indicating a positive bias.
Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty near 49,900 with a stop loss at 49,700, targeting 50,200-50,400.
Insights from Rajesh Bhosale
Weekly Trading Activity
Following a strong surge during the election result week, this week has been notably lackluster for the high beta index. Prices have remained confined to a narrow range between 49,500 and 50,250. Examining the trading activity of the past two weeks, it resembles a Pole and Flag pattern formation.
Key Levels to Watch
Key Support: 49,500 – 49,250 – 49,000 Key Resistance: 50,250 – 50,500 – 50,750
Strategy: Traders should maintain a buy-on-dip approach with a stop loss at 49,500 and can expect strong positive momentum once prices break beyond 50,250.
Options Analysis
The highest open interest concentration is centered around the ATM 50,000 strike for both calls and puts. This suggests ongoing accumulation in this area, hinting at a potential imminent momentum shift. Additionally, there is notable buildup in the OTM 51,000 call and OTM 49,000 put, indicating expectations of a broader price range once momentum returns to the market.
The Indian benchmark indices started last week flat and remained lackluster within a narrow trading range throughout the week. Nifty closed at 23,466, gaining 175 points on a weekly basis, while Bank Nifty closed at 50,002, gaining 199 points. Despite the consolidation phase, both indices managed to end slightly higher. Sectoral buying and traction in select themes kept traders engaged. The market undertone remains positive, so traders should consider buying on dips and booking profits at higher levels. Keep an eye on the key support and resistance levels to plan your trades effectively.
